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The La Niña and El Niño phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have major impacts on regional rainfall patterns around the globe, with substantial environmental, societal and economic implications. Long-term perspectives on ENSO behaviour, under changing background conditions, are essential to anticipating how ENSO phases may respond under future climate scenarios. Here, we derive a 7700-year, quantitative precipitation record using carbon isotope ratios from a single species of leaf preserved in lake sediments from subtropical eastern Australia. We find a generally wet (more La Niña-like) mid-Holocene that shifted towards drier and more variable climates after 3200 cal. yr BP, primarily driven by increasing frequency and strength of the El Niño phase. Climate model simulations implicate a progressive orbitally-driven weakening of the Pacific Walker Circulation as contributing to this change. At centennial scales, high rainfall characterised the Little Ice Age (~1450–1850 CE) in subtropical eastern Australia, contrasting with oceanic proxies that suggest El Niño-like conditions prevail during this period. Our data provide a new western Pacific perspective on Holocene ENSO variability and highlight the need to address ENSO reconstruction with a geographically diverse network of sites to characterise how both ENSO, and its impacts, vary in a changing climate.

The Late Cretaceous–Early Paleogene is the most recent period in Earth history that experienced sustained global greenhouse warmth on multimillion year timescales. Yet, knowledge of ambient climate conditions and the complex interplay between various forcing mechanisms are still poorly constrained. Here we present a 14.75 million‐year‐long, high‐resolution, orbitally tuned record of paired climate change and carbon‐cycling for this enigmatic period (~67–52 Ma), which we compare to an up‐to‐date compilation of atmosphericpCO₂records. Our climate and carbon‐cycling records, which are the highest resolution stratigraphically complete records to be constructed from a single marine site in the Atlantic Ocean, feature all major transient warming events (termed “hyperthermals”) known from this time period. We identify eccentricity as the dominant pacemaker of climate and the carbon cycle throughout the Late Maastrichtian to Early Eocene, through the modulation of precession. On average, changes in the carbon cycle lagged changes in climate by ~23,000 years at the long eccentricity (405,000‐year) band, and by ~3,000–4,500 years at the short eccentricity (100,000‐year) band, suggesting that light carbon was released as a positive feedback to warming induced by orbital forcing. Our new record places all known hyperthermals of the Late Maastrichtian–Early Eocene into temporal context with regards to evolving ambient climate of the time. We constrain potential carbon cycle influences of Large Igneous Province volcanism associated with the Deccan Traps and North Atlantic Igneous Province, as well as the sensitivity of climate and the carbon‐cycle to the 2.4 million‐year‐long eccentricity cycle.